Ymateb i - The Clash of Civilizations - Some Thoughts

A few days ago, I finally finished Samuel Huntington's 'Clash of Civilizations' having wanted to read it but never having time all through ym year of actually studying International Politics. First published in 1997, the book introduces a fascinating thesis - that future wars will not be fought on ideological, nationalist or realist lines, but on civilizational ones, with the world divided into multipolar regions dominated by various civilizations, which Huntington identifies as Western, Orthodox/Russian, Chinese, Japanese, Islamic, Hindu, Latin American, African and Buddhist.

One of Huntington's central arguments is that, as Western power declines relative to Chinese and Islamic power, so also will the attractiveness of Western values to the peoples of these civilizations. He argues that East Asians and Muslims, buoyed by rising economic prowess, and the increased military capability that this allows, are already espousing the superiorities of their respective civilizations over the West. Further, in his conclusion, he argues that if the West is to survive and renew itself, it must continue to cooperate economically and militarily, must curb the antisocial element in its society (which he suggests propogate the claims of Sinic and Islamic superiority), and must refrain from international intervenion in the affairs of other states, because of the instability and conflict this risks.

There are flaws in Huntington's main thesis certainly. In particular, he never convincingly shows how, at the crunch, realist/ liberal approaches to foreign policy are eschewed in favour of a civilizational policy. There is enough currency in his ideas however, to force the West (and Westerners) to seriously consider their appraisal of the West (and its values)' position in the world.

For instance, I would suspect that the majority of people reading this blog would subscribe to the existence of some notion of human rights, and also most probably beleive that democracy to be the most legitimate form of government. I would even venture to say that these beliefs are conditioned into politically aware Westerners quite comprehensively from an early age - in the classroom debate, if you are not pro-democracy then you are labelled as either communist, or (more likely in Britain at least) fascist.

As a conditioned Westerner, I believe that the attitudes above are indeed correct and righteous, but today's world sees these values failing increasingly to spread their roots in Asia and Africa. In Iraq and Afghanistan, the prospect of democracy (albeit one imposed by force) hangs in the balance. In Burma, the pro-democracy movement is crushed while the regional hegemon, China, chooses to nothings, whilst the West cannot do anything. In Pakistan, the greatest hope for democracy is assasinated by Islamic militants Smiliarly human rights abuses in China and Saudi Arabia (to name but two) are quietly sacrificed in favour of economic and strategic considerations.

If Huntington's analysis is therefore even partly accurate, I believe that Westerners must reconcile themselves to the new political climate. The march of liberal democracy has been stopped, and, while the Ottomans may not be at the gates of Vienna, Western values are nevertheless under intense examination across the globe. The world is becoming an unprecedently multipolar world, rife with instability, where a state's ability to project power beyond its own region is increasingly limited. For the West, I believe, this means focusing its democaratizing efforts on the areas it can actually influence, namely Latin America and southern Africa. For Westerners, it means accepting that our self-righteous preaching on democracy and human rights (whatever their actual legitimacy) will not be listened to in regions of the globe where other civilizations dominate. For a civilization so used to having its views respected and obeyed, it could prove a bitter pill to swallow.

A New Look - Ar ei Newydd Wedd

After a week of stuggling for the first time with html, I think I've finally stumbled on an effective layout for my blog. With the Welsh and English side by side, I hope it will make navigation easier for both sets of readers, avoiding the need for any annoying scrolling. Additionally, I guess it gives those English readers who are curious a chance to see what the equivalent looks like in Welsh.

For those interested in computer matters (and who want to laugh at the hammer and tongs way I changed things around) - I found a template for a 3 column blog online, where the extra column was an additional left hand sidebar. I then altered the html of the original sidebar to match the post column, and reduced the size of both to 380 px (if I remember correctly).

I then set up a text box in the old side bar, copied all my Welsh posts in there, and again went back to the source to alter the appearance of the text. Here remains the one glitch - I copied the post about 'dwindling numbers' first, and couldn't change the line spacing for love or money. When I copied the other posts later, it seemed to work fine. Any thoughts why? Also, I'm not sure how well the page looks on smaller monitors, so any problems, do let me know.

Thanks are due to Amanda from BloggerBuster.com for the original template, and for some of the Maes-e.com fraternity for some advice on the project.

With a bit of luck, a 'real' post will follow sometime tonight.

Yma o hyd - In ever dwindling numbers?

It was with a sense of some foreboding that I read this story on the Beeb today, concerning the death of the last native speaker of the Eyak language of Alaska, which is now effectively extinct.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7206411.stm

My gloom comes mainly from the starkness of this reminder of the fragility of so many of the world's minor languages, least of all my own native Welsh. To my mind, the story underline the brutality but also the inevitability of globalisation. This woman clearly had great pride in her language, but still did not, or was unable to pass the language on to her children "because they grew up at a time when it was considered wrong to speak anything but English." Thankfully in Wales that era is past, at least from an educational and political perspective.

The fact remains however that English (or another major business language) is a prerequisite in a globalised economy. Furthermore, knowledge of English facilitates economic mobility and results in Eyaks, or Welsh, leaving their native land for English-speaking areas that are economically more productive. This is not merely inevitable. It is also often necessary, as Maynard Keynes points out, when recession makes migration to areas with greater job opportunities essential for survival.

My point is this. The native areas of minority rarely have the economic capacity or the social allure (compared to the bright lights of the city) to retain a significant proportion of its youth. Minority language lobby groups such as Cymdeithas yr Iaith (The Welsh Language Society) must, I believe tailor their strategies accordingly. Yes, campaigns for affordable houses for local people have a part to play, but it is more important to acknowledge that a significant proportion of those people cannot or do not wish to buy a house in that area. Personally, this is self evident from the fact that the overwhelming majority of my friends who attended 6th form have left my hometown, either moving to Cardiff or England.

On this analysis, the key task for the Welsh Language Society and other lobby groups is to engage constructively with the migrants who move into Welsh speaking areas. That is why I have always been wary of large scale protests involving spray painting and the like - not because of the cause at issue, but because of the division these protest usually (if unintentionally) create between the two groups of people. Instead, I believe that a more productive approach would be to involve (English) migrants into the community as early and as deeply as possible. The actual teaching of Welsh can (and must) come later, but this is futile unless English migrants understand the issues at stake, and moreover have been welcomed into, and feel a sense of belonging to a 'Welsh' community.

Some Welsh campaigners will I'm sure decry this suggestion as unworkable, and I have no doubt that there are pockets of hostility to the Welsh language amongst English migrants. One thing is certain though; a friendly Welsh welcome is more likely to succeed than a hostile reception and a decent to 'them and us' politics. In today's world, I am convinced that this is the only viable long term strategy for minority languages. It won't be easy, but as the (badly translated) Welsh saying goes 'the oft hit stone will crack'.

Is this the real life? Byw mew breuddwyd

Having started promisingly with 3 posts in one week, my blog-writing motivation petered out quite quickly. Originally, I'd intended to regale my faithful readers (all one and a half of them) with a witty-yet-insightful analysis of the New Hampshire primary results. Alas, that opportunity is dead and gone, so you'll have to wait for the next round.

Strange really that despite having almost nothing to do, it just seemed like too much effort to engage my brain and write a few paragraphs on here. Instead, I fear I must confess, the chance to build my own virtual kingdom (on the computer game Civilization 3) seemed both more interesting and, tragically, important. Despite having spent a considerable amount of my life playing these games, I still only have a nebulous idea of why I, and several million other people, have such an interest in these games, often to the detriment of real life.

The two main attractions, I venture to guess, is that computer games are a) more interesting than real life and b) provide an escape from it. Let's face it, securing bridges around the Normandy beaches with the 101st airborne is not something any of us is going to experience in real life, nor is commanding a Roman legion. All well and good. Unfortunately, it can easily become the case that these simulated scenarios become more than simply a source of entertainment, but also become more exciting than ordinary, mundane real life. I know this from experience (yes, sa-a-ad). Another worrying trait that I've noticed personally, which I'd imagine is widely true, is the use of the reload button when things go wrong. Unlike one's frail existence in real life, he who controls the game has an almost god-like immortality which is somehow reassuring. I also don't think there's an easier way to forget the worries of 'out there' than through concentrating on beating the computer on the hardest level. For example, when trying to formulate a difficult paragraph in an essay, who hasn't reached for the minesweeper icon instead of actually engaging one's brain?

I suppose that those are my paltry excuses for neglecting this blog (and many other things really). As we all know, computer games, like fiction books, are merely artificial realities. At the end of the day, no one will remember who the greatest ever space invaders player was (trust me, I've just googled it). Time therefore to carpe diem and actually do something with one's life. In my case, at least, I'm always aware that my adventures in virtual-land are mere fantasies. And yet it is so often the case that retreating into that warm, safe world is so much easier than confronting reality, engaging one's brain, and putting in a bit of effort. Sigh!

Perhaps to that end, you may be interested to know that I've just put in an offer for a house which, if it goes through, will put me thousands of pounds in the red. Solitaire anyone?

Kerdiff, like - Trip i'r brifddinas

Today, my Dad and I journeyed to Cardiff to visit a few potential houses, in view of my impending move southwards. Unfortunately, my idea of an ideal property conflicted somewhat with that of my Dad's, who favoured a modern flat in a new development over my more traditional ideas.

This was the first time I'd returned to Cardiff Bay since a (not particularly inspiring) Geography trip in 2002. Needless to say, things had changed a bit, and not just civic projects like the Millennium Centre, but literally hundreds of new appartments, dotting the landscape for miles upon miles of faux-balconies. Personally, I don't think I could ever adapt to living in such an area such as the Bay, which lacks the physical foundations (such as schools, churches or small shops) around which communities can develop. Rather than homes were people lived and interacted, my overriding impression of the Bay flats were of boxes where people spent the night, before setting off for work each morning, without ever crossing their neighbours' paths. This feeling of lacking 'soul' (for want of a better word) was compounded if anything by the fact that many of the area's older buildings, such as the imposing Victorian buildings near Butetown, have been allowed to deteriorate.

Yes, I can understand my Dad's argument that a modern appartment is probably a 'safe' investment, but I'm left wondering if that is enough to compensate for the absence of a genuine community when moving to a new, alien city. Regardless, the hunt continues...

Huw

The New Job / Y Swydd Newydd

Since I'm starting to feel the pressure to write something, perhaps I should take the most recent development in my life as a starting point. As most of you don't know, I was recently offered a job with EADS DS Ltd on their business graduate programme based in South Wales. For the majority of you who don't know, EADS stands for European Aeronautic Defence and Space company, with the DS standing for Defence and Security. This is slightly less ambiguous (and controversial) than the way I've been introducing the company to my dad's questioning friends - "the company that builds Airbus"!

What therefore are the ethical implications of working for a company that, one some levels, could be described as an arms firm. To say that I'll "be helping kill babies" as one friend summed up the news is certainly exaggerated. Moreover the DS branch of the company focuses on satellite communication, cryptography and civil defence and so is far removed from any lethal technology. It cannot be denied however that, as the second largest missile manufacturer in the world, and the manufacturer of the Eurofighter Typhoon, other branches of EADS are certainly 'hot'.

It has always been my belief that weapons are evil, but this is tempered with the acknowledgment that they are sometimes a necessary one in a world driven by competition, and where the weak are dominated by the strong. This is not the "end of history" and it would be irresponsible for states not to wholly lower their guard. The shot above of a Typhoon intercepting a Russian bomber demonstrates as much.

It is also worth remembering that these are essentially hypothetical weapons designed to defend the airspace of European states. Yes, they may occasionally be used in regional conflicts, but the prospect of a state using these technologies in an unilateral campaign of conquest are miniscule. I believe ultimately that high technology weapons such as ones built by EADS contribute to stability, not instability.

My final, and perhaps key justification is the fact that EADS is an European company producing advanced technology for the European aerospace market. In other words, it provides European leaders with the hard 'stick' which is surely necessary to give credence to any diplomatic campaign. As I will doubtless argue repeatedly in the blog, if Europeans expect their views and opinions to be listened to on the world stage, then they must accept the commitment to hard power which that entails. Just as Stalin asked how many divisions did the Pope command, so will Europe be challenged. It is my belief that EADS, as an European firm (independent of the US military-industrial complex), gives European leaders the tools to answer such challenges, and thus help make the world a better place.

There are of course flaws in my defence, some of which cannot be answered for reasons of time. I'm sure that some people would still reject the company's morality. However, I hope that I've at least laid out my views on the matter, since it was something that I thought long and hard over before arriving at my own personal conclusion. (you're welcome to disagree with me by the way).

More on the move to South Wales and the actual job in weeks to come...

In the beginning - Yn y dechreuad...

Annwyl bawb, Dear all - Welcome, Croeso

Dear all - Welcome

After several years of resisting, I have finally decided to start writing a 'blog' despite the term's inherent ugliness (in my opinion). My hope is that this blog will serve several purposes, giving me a chance to have my say on the day's hot topic (catch!), letting friends keep abreast of what's going on in my life, and acting as a sort of diary of my life from er, today. (the Welsh section will also be a nice opportunity to write in Welsh again, having not really done so since 2003).

I think the main reason why I've refrained from writing a blog before now has been the impression gleaned from reading certain blogs that the author has been granted some sort of higher authority to comment on affairs, and that the author's opinion is worth listening to. This is sometimes the case, but I am still very uncomfortable with blogs being presented as legitimate and authoratitive sources. They are ultimately merely the musings of one private individual after all. That is not to say that individuals don't have the right to express their opinion, I just sometimes feel that the media in particular pay too much attention to the views of some individuals, simply because those views are published online. Having said that, the temptation to have a few rants of my own finally prevailed, so I've started this blog! The turning point came quite recently after reading a blog written by a mother from the US South describing Hilary Clinton as a 'socialist'. If there is room for writing like this in the 'blogosphere' (and morover that there is an audience for it), then I feel no harm, and perhaps some good can come from committing my own two-bob to digital text.

This blog will be written bilingually in both Welsh and English, alternating which comes first each post - (another of my gripes - Welsh speaking bloggers who choose to write exclusively in English, particularly those who should really try harder. Welsh Assembly members, take note)

So, fully admitting my own flaws, biases and pretensions, here goes...

Huw